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Richard Winch

Electric vehicles and the 2030 deadline

There are two main ways to reduce our global warming emissions from vehicles: reduce the number of journeys we all take and move away from petrol and diesel vehicles. This is why the UK currently plans to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles from 2030.


Whilst hybrid vehicles will still be allowed, if we want to get the full environmental benefits this really means transitioning to electric vehicles. There is a lot of talk about hydrogen vehicles but it’s difficult to see how this will help in the near future. There are hardly any models available, they are expensive to buy and run, you can’t recharge at home and there are only 15 hydrogen fuel stations in the whole of the UK!


Manufacturing electric vehicles produces more global warming emissions than the average petrol vehicle. However, over their whole lifetime electric vehicles have significantly less emissions (a reduction of around 25-40% compared to an average conventional car) and less local air pollutants. The full benefits of electric cars of course do depend on the extent to which electricity production is non fossil fuel based.


We are used to thinking of petrol car efficiency in miles per gallon (even though petrol is priced per litre!) but for electric cars there’s a different measure: miles per kiloWatt hour. You really need to translate everything to the price per mile. Assuming you are charging at home and even with the recent energy price increases a typical smaller electric car costs just over 10p per mile to run versus nearer 20p per mile for an equivalent diesel car i.e. your fuel bill would be halved. However, if you are always charging away from home the difference will be reduced as the cost of electricity on a public charger will be higher.


The main problems for most people looking at buying an electric car are the lack of second hand vehicles, doubts about range, concerns about the charging network and the speed of charging.


According to the RAC the sales of second-hand electric cars is growing by over 150% year on year but this is from a very low base. Only 2% of cars on the road in 2022 are electric so it's going to be a while before the second hand market becomes dominated by electric vehicles. At the moment second hand electric vehicles tend to have less efficient batteries and a lower range.


Most modern electric vehicles now have a reasonable range but if you want to preserve the battery life you shouldn’t keep your battery consistently above 80% capacity. If you occasionally drive long distances this isn’t a problem as you just charge to 100% when needed. If you are always driving long distances, say for work, this becomes more of a problem. It’s also an issue that charging becomes less efficient as the battery gets fuller i.e. it is much quicker to charge twice to 50% than once to 100%.


The situation with the charging infrastructure is mixed. The number of charging points is increasing rapidly. At the end of September 2022, there were roughly 35,000 electric vehicle charging points across the UK, which represents a 35% annual increase. However, it is estimated that we need to add roughly the same amount of charging points every year for the next 8 years to meet the 2030 target.


A recent Which Report also highlighted a lot of dissatisfaction with the speed, availability and reliability of the public network. This is compounded by the fact that there are currently over 60 providers all with different apps and payment mechanisms. You can’t just pay with a debit or credit card as with petrol.


The bottom line at the moment is that if you buy an electric vehicle it is better for the environment. If you also have a home charging point it is easy and cheaper to run. If you don’t have a home based charging point (and this isn’t really an option for most people in built up areas) you will end up paying more for charging, it can be more inconvenient and longer journeys can be stressful.


We have to solve the charging infrastructure issue if the transition to electric cars is going to happen fast enough. At the moment it’s difficult to see how leaving everything to the market is actually going to work.


While EVs won’t solve all of the problems associated with car use they are an important element in tackling the climate emergency. Ideally we need policies that increase the % of new cars that are EVs, and reduce people's need to have a car so that the overall number of vehicles declines.


The UK government has subsequently delayed plans to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles from 2030 to 2035.

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